CIS 80b: SYSTEMS and SIMULATION Fall Quarter, 2006 Plan: Have fun. Learn systems thinking. ================================================================= Lectures: MWF 930-1040am Engineering II 194 Formal Labs: (You must register for one and attend it weekly) A. Monday 2-345pm Ming Ong 108 B. Wednesday2-345pm Ming Ong 108 C. Friday 2-345pm Ming Ong 108 (will be open but have no tutor). Students will also be expected to spend an additional 4-5 hours in unscheduled labs each week. Stella will be available at all the PC labs (Ming Ong, SS1, BE109, Cowell Apts, and Kresge). It may not be available at Oakes due to its much older hardware. It will also be available remotely through "remote desktop" into windows.ic.ucsc.edu. ======================================================================= Instructor: Robert Levinson Office Hours: Th2-6pm, after class, or by appt. Engineering II 255 Phone number: 459-2087 E-mail:levinson@cse.ucsc.edu - Write me! Newsgroup: ucsc.class.cmp80b - Please read regularly! ============================================================================ 2 FUNDAMENTAL LAWS OF SYSTEMS: 1. DIVERSITY + SYMMETRY = TOTAL DIVERSITY OF PARTS (in a closed system) 2. SYMMETRY never decreases in a closed system. -----------------------------Assistants-------------------------- (more details to be announced). Teaching Assistants: (None!) Graduate Tutors: (will help you with labs) David Ilstrup (will do demos in class) E-mail: davei@soe.ucsc.edu Fooad Khosmood (will be in the scheduled labs) E-mail: foaad@soe.ucsc.edu ------------- Prerequisites: High school algebra or instructor's permission. The course *does* use mathematics so you should have a genuine desire to use and improve your math skills. No programming experience is required. ---------------------------- A LINEAR REGRESSION TOOL can be found at: http://science.kennesaw.edu/~plaval/applets/LRegression.html AN EXPONENTIAL REGRESSION TOOL can be found at: http://www.xuru.org/rt/ExpR.asp A FUNCTION PLOTTER can be found at: http://www.sunsite.ubc.ca/LivingMathematics/Voo1N01/LBCExamples/PLotCalc.html A STANDARD DEVIATION TOOL: http://www.biokin.com/tools/aver.html or you may use other similar tools and calculators such as MAPLE, EXCEL etc. ------------------------------- TEXTBOOKS: REQUIRED TEXTS: 1. THIS BOOK IS ON MATHEMATICS and MODELING. We will cover chapters 1-7, and 10 (Call it "FST") Functions, Statistics, and Trigonometry by Sharon L. Senk, Steven S. Viktora, Zalman Usiskin, and Nils P. Ahbel etal # Publisher: Scott Foresman & Co; 2nd edition (January 1998) # ISBN: 0673459268 2. Lab parts , STELLA info and CD are from here: The disk with the book is "Read-Only" but will work for your labs (and not projects). (Call it "DM") Dynamic Modeling (Modeling Dynamic Systems) (Hardcover) by D.H. Meadows (Foreword), Bruce Hannon, Matthias Ruth 2001, Springer-Verlag. ISBN 0-387-98868-8 3. Lab exercises. 4 pages. Handed out free in class. (contains 6 exercises as discussed below) May also be downloaded from: www.clexchange.org/ftp/documents/Math/MA1995-08ExponentialModels.pdf ------------------------------------ 4. OPTIONAL but RECOMMENDED TEXT: (Some concepts and examples in lectures will come from here - a brief handout of excerpts will be provided.) (call it "STB") Systems Thinking Basics >From Concepts to Causal Loops Virginia Anderson and Laura Johnson Pegasus Publishing 1997. ISBN 1-883823-12-9 5. TOTALLY OPTIONAL DOWNLOAD (Some concepts and examples in lectures will come from here - but you do not need to download or read it) Explorations in Scientific Thinking (2 chapter draft in progress) A Systems Theoretic Approach Robert Levinson A R Goodwin Download the 2 chapters from here: http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/%7ELevinson/Book/ScientificThinking.pdf ================================================================================================== EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE: Quantity WRITTEN HOMEWORKS 20% 5 SIMULATION LAB REPORTS 20% 6 QUIZZES 20% 4 30 minute inclass exams. FINAL EXAMINATION 20% 180 minute inclass exam. TERM PROJECT 20% Turned in day of final. (Three progress checks and a final report). Homework (not labs or projects) may be done with 1-3 other students in the class. If done in a group, the collaborators should be listed on the same paper when the assignment is turned in. It is fine and encouraged to discuss homework problems with other students - BUT CHEATING or ACADEMIC DISHONESTY on any course item (such as direct verbatim copying from a member outside your group or during an exam) will result in not passing the course and other undesirable consequences. Homework is due as announced above. Except for medical excuses , homework is late if it is not in the reader's hands by the time he/she grades the assignment. The grading schedule will not be changed to accommodate late submissions. Late homework receives 15% off for each school day (M-F) it is late. There will be no makeup examinations and no incompletes for the course will be given. Term projects are due on the day of the final examination and not later. Projects will either be a simulation study of your choice or a 10-15 tutorial paper on some topic in systems theory/thinking. Projects or papers must be original and not a mere transmutation of previous work. Cooperative projects are acceptable provided the subject, scope and concept are approved in advance. 100% work will be considered that level at which only 5% of students have done equal to or better than. Thus, it is possible to score more than 100% on any graded item. All labs, quizzes, homeworks will be weighted EQUAL - regardless of the length. However, your weakest quiz, lab and homework will be ignored!! ---- Guaranteed grade levels! (these levels may be lowered and definitely will not be raised.) 90.0% A- 82.5% B- 75.0% C- 65.0% D In addition, at least 25% work on EACH of the five basic course components, homework, labs, quizzes, final, project is required for passing the course. ============================================================================= LAB ASSIGNMENTS Lab 1: Based on 2.1-2.4 of DM + Lab Exercise 1 Lab 2: Based on 2.5.1-2.5.2 of DM + Lab Exercise 2 Lab 3: Based on 3.1-3.4 of DM + Lab Exercise 3 Lab 4: Based on 4.1.1-4.1.3, 4.2 of DM + Lab Exercise 4 Lab 5: Based on 5.1-5.2, 6.1-6.3 of DM + Lab Exercise 5 Lab 6: Based on 7.1, 7.2.1, 7.2.2 of DM + Lab Exercise 6 For each lab part from DM: (optionally build) and run the models and answer the following questions: Answer the following two questions: ( a couple of sentences each will do) 1. What is the basic idea behind the model? (how does it differ from others) 2. What are the stocks? Flows? 3. Does the model behave as you would expect? 4. Does anything unusual happen at extreme settings? 5. The most useful or interesting thing I learned about STELLA from this lab part. 6. The most useful or interesting thing I learned about mathematics or systems or science from the lab part. In addition to DM lab parts, perform the lab exercises from lab handout and turn in your answered worksheet. ********** Basic Stella Manual: http://www2.chemeng.lth.se/edu/STELLA/stellaintro/stella_manual/manual.html ============================================================================= LECTURE AND ASSIGNMENT SCHEDULE (unless otherwise informed) . ---------------------------- W1-W5 are Written assignments (pages are marked below) from FST. (some of the answers are in the back of the book - you should double check these answers and show how you arrive at them). L1-L6 are the above reports based on labs using DM, a lab handout, and the Stella Software. P1-P3 are Project progress checks based on individual projects using the Stella software. I. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEMS THINKING and DYNAMIC MODELING Read: Chapter 1 in DM. Read: Sections 1-2 in STB. Read: Chapter 1 in FST W1: pp.59-60 exercises 10-18 (thus 9 exercises in all) 1. (Fri. Sept. 22) 2. (Mon. Sept. 25) SCHEDULED LABS BEGIN 3. (Wed. Sept 27) 4. (Fri. Sept 29) W1 is due. II. GENERAL MODELING METHODS and ARCHETYPES Read: DM Chapters 2-4 Read: STB Sections 3-4 Read: Chapters 2-3 in FST W2: pg 94-95 14-16 pg 117 9-13 pg 126 12 pg 140 13 (thus 10 exercises in all) 5. (Mon. Oct. 2) 6. (Wed. Oct. 4) 7. (Friday Oct. 6) Quiz 1. Labs 1 and 2 are due. 8. (Mon. October 9) 9. (Wed. October 11) 10. (Fri. October 13) W2 is due. III. FURTHER MODEL VARIATIONS Read: DM Chapters 5-7 Read: STB Section 5 Read: Chapters 4-5 in FST W3: pg 290-291 exercises 9-13 pg 338-339 exercises 23-24 pg 343 exercises 15-16 (thus 9 exercises in all) 11. (Mon. October 16) 12. (Wed. October 18) 13. (Fri. October 20) Quiz 2. Labs 3 and 4 are due. IV. APPLICATIONS and ADVANCED TOPICS Read: STB Section 6 14. (Mon. October 23) 15. (Wed. October 25) 16. (Fri. October 27) W3 is due. Project Checkpoint 1 ( Project Proposal) is due. Read: FST Chapters 6-7 W4: pg 438-439 exercises 13-17 pg 455 exercises 10-12 (thus 9 exercises in all) 17. (Mon. October 30) 18. (Wed. November 1) 19. (Fri. November 3) Quiz 3. Labs5-6 are due. 20. (Mon. November 6) 21. (Wed. November 8) Project Checkpoint 2 . (State Variables, Rates and Equations and Causal-Loop Diagrams ) is Due. 22. (Fri. November 10) NO CLASS. Holiday. 23. (Mon. November 13) 24. (Wed. November 15) 25. (Fri. November 17) Project Checkpoint 3: (Draft Report + Stella Model) is Due. W4 is due. Read: FST Chapter 10 W5: pg. 668 exercises 11-13 pg. 684 exercises 9-11 (thus 6 exercises in all) 26. (Mon. November 20) 27. (Wed. November 22) QUIZ 4. 28. (Fri. November 24) NO CLASS. Holiday. 29. (Mon. November 27) 30. (Wed. November 29) REVIEW 31. (Fri. December 1) REVIEW W5 is due. Final Exam - Tuesday December 5 8-11am. Regular Class Room: E2 194 Final Project Reports also due at this time!! (You may turn in earlier and often for feedback). The final exam (in class and cumulative) will come from material in the lectures, readings, homework and programming problems, but the large majority come from lecture.